‘We are nowhere near the bottom,’ top economist says as global markets crater
Stock markets are set for more heavy selling this summer as central banks around the world ramp up interest rates to try to combat spiraling inflation, according to one economist.
Brunello Rosa, who is the CEO and head of research at Rosa & Roubini, a consultancy he co-founded alongside well-known market bear Nouriel Roubini, believes there is much more monetary tightening to come from central banks, and more bad news on economic activity.
“Now it’s time for a reappreciation of the economic fundamentals around the world in terms of growth,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” Friday.
“It’s hard for markets to be totally optimistic when inflation is going up, growth is going down and interest rates are rising fast across the globe.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 1,000 points on Thursday and the Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 5%, erasing a rally on Wednesday. Initial relief over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ruling out of more aggressive hikes seemingly gave way to fears that a sharp hiking cycle in order to rein in red-hot inflation could harm economic growth.
Rosa said investors initially welcomed the news that a 75-basis-point hike is off the table, but he warned that this means there would be several 50-basis-point hikes over the next few months. He also said that the Bank of England is the only central bank currently being realistic, after policymakers in London on Thursday warned of the recession risks that the U.K. economy is facing.
“It’s clear that all of them [central banks] are talking tough at this stage. But the reality is that lots of tightening will eventually lead to economic contraction,” he said.
“In the euro zone and in the U.S. they are nowhere near realizing that actually there will be some form of contraction of economic activity,” he later added.
Rosa said he expects the war in Ukraine to last much longer than many market participants are anticipating, adding to other headwinds such as supply chains issues, soaring inflation, and rising interest rates.
— CNBC’s Elliot Smith contributed to this article.